I went to the Lit & Phil at Newcastle today to change my library books. Having selected about half-a-dozen whodunnits to get me through the royal wedding weekend I pottered down to the basement in order to point percy prior to my departure on the metro. When I arrived at the Gents I was confronted by this rather splendid message which I thought I would share with you.
We regret that due to a boiler malfunction there is no hot water in these toilets.
Speak to you later, my dear blogophiles
I cooked lunch for my friends Ali and Maura yesterday, the bank holiday Monday. My starter went down very well. I made a savoury fruit salad with brown rice. First, I cooked the rice in a litre of apple juice. Then I chopped a red pepper, an orange pepper, a citrus orange, spring onions and parsley, and mixed that lot into the rice.
Savoury fruit salad with brown rice
To go with the rice salad, I made a vinaigrette dressing. This was a proper pestle and mortar job, starting out with a crushed clove of garlic before adding the white balsamic vinegar and olive oil. I put a good half-teaspoon of Colman’s mustard powder in with the seasoning to give it a bite. I served the dressing separately, so that the folks could decide for themselves how much of it they wanted to toss onto the salad. Everybody had second helpings and I think that always says a lot about a dish.
Pounding the garlic for the vinaigrette
For the main course I cooked a vegetable cobbler and served this with boiled new potatoes. The chopped and fried vegetable base would have been rather dry, were it not for the fact that I hoyed in a can of chopped tomatoes to give it some moisture. Actually, cans of chopped tomatoes have started to appear as cardboard cartons in my supermarket. What is the world coming to, I ask myself. Although I cooked rather a large quantity, not a morsel was left by the time I went to bed. So, all in all, I was very pleased with how things went. The cooking was straightforward and very tasty. Speak to you later, my dear blogophiles.
Vegetable cobbler with new potatoes
I am in the process of making up my mind about how I shall vote on the AV system in the UK on May 5th and. I shall set out my current position here. This is not going to be one of my more entertaining blogs, I have to say, and it might remind some of you of an elementary maths class at some points.
Let the number of candidates be C and the number of voters be V. Each voter is allowed to place the candidates in rank order of preference on the ballot paper. Voters do have to vote for at least one candidate in order for their vote to be valid, but they do not have to vote (or rank) all the candidates. The First Round of Counting (1stRC) is based upon the candidates who have been ticked as Rank #1. To win, a candidate must have more than 50% of the votes, V. Where this does not happen, the losing candidate with fewest votes at the first round (1stRC) is eliminated. I shall now explain what happens next.
The procedure moves to a Second Round of Counting (2ndRC) based on the remaining (C-1) candidates. These candidates keep the votes they earned in the first round (1stRC). To these votes are added the Rank #2 votes from the voters whose votes were eliminated at the first (1stRC) round because they had voted for the loser, providing of course that they had exercised their right to make a Rank #2 vote. Those that did not may be referred to as the Abstainers (A). These new totals for each of the remaining (C-1) candidates are inspected and if any candidate at this point has more than 50% of the total votes cast, (V-A), that candidate is declared the winner. I am assuming I am correct in stating that the calculation is based on the total (V-A) and not the original first round (1stRC) total of (V), since we must be talking about votes actually cast.
This process of reallocation continues through subsequent rounds until a winner can be declared. Matters must grind to a halt when there are only two candidates remaining; the winner is, obviously, the candidate with the most votes. I do not know what would happen in the unlikely situation where there was a tie at this juncture, but I can’t be worrying about that sort of thing right now.
It is my view that the maximum impact of a redistribution of votes will be where the range of scores in the first round (1stRC) is (approximately) as narrow as the number of candidates C. If one thinks about this, another way to put it is to say that the number of votes scored by each candidate approximates to V /C, give or take a few. I mention in passing that the larger the turnout the more insignificant will the differences be between roughly equal voting shares, if taken as a percentage of the vote.
The case of unequally distributed votes at the point of reallocation for Rank #2 and beyond
I move on now to consider the case where a second round (2ndRC) has been triggered from an approximately even distribution of votes in the first round (1stRC). It occurs to me that a bias could occur if there were some extraneous factor that resulted in the losing candidate’s votes being redistributed by Rank #2 in a grossly uneven way across the remaining candidates. In this case, the candidate favoured would win, when on the basis of Rank #1 there would not have been much to choose between any of them. It might help, at this stage, if I generate an imaginary example to illustrate what sort of situation might cause this to happen. In this example I shall consider what party organisers might advise their own supporters to do in terms of their Rank #2 preference and also what they might aim to do in terms of persuading the supporters of other candidates in terms of naming them as their Rank #2 candidate.
Let us imagine that influence is brought to bear upon the voters who support a particular candidate as Rank #1, in terms of their choice of candidate at Rank #2 level. This might be engineered through the party machinery or the media, possibly with calculated and deliberate intent. Let us imagine a three horse race in a given constituency between Labour, Tory, and the Greens. The voters seem to be equally enchanted (or disenchanted) by all three candidates, as far as can be discerned from the opinion polls. I shall now go on to explore this scenario in a little more detail.
At the first round (1stRC), on the basis of Rank #1, each candidate receives approximately one third of the vote, but Labour narrowly loses. So under AV the Rank #2 of all the Labour voters is re-distributed. And now imagine that the local Labour party and workers agreed to advise their supporters to vote for the Green candidate in Rank #2. It doesn’t matter what the Tories or the Greens said to their supporters in this example, since their totals will be determined by Rank #1.
At this point the calculations are made, and because of the strong instruction by Labour to their supporters about Rank #2, the bulk of the losers’ vote goes to Greens, and the Green candidate gets in by what looks like a rather good majority. Is this fair? Clearly it is a matter of opinion. In terms of the empirical facts, one can see that a well disciplined and tightly-led party could maximise its chances of getting their favoured next-best candidate through in the second round (2ndRC), in situations where they knew they were running approximately evenly in the opinion polls. This would be a case of minimising the collateral damage of defeat. They might also target one of the opposition parties to persuade them to place them in second position in Rank #2. This would amount to horse-trading prior to voting day. If Labour supporters agree to place the Greens as Rank #2 and, reciprocally, the Greens agree to place Labour as Rank #2, they could together maximise the probability that the Tory candidate (in this example) would lose at the second round (2ndRC) if they had not already been eliminated at the first round (1stRC).
I have so far focussed upon a pre-ballot coalition strategy for maximising the chances that a mutually undesired contender might lose. It is more difficult to articulate a recipe for a candidates own success at the second round (2ndRC). It would be necessary to persuade the supporters of the opposing parties to name one as the Rank #2 candidate, as opposed to the other candidate(s). My guess is that this would involve roughly the same actions and activities that the candidate would embark upon in order to win their vote as the Rank #1 candidate. I suppose one strategy could be encapsulated as urge the supporters of the other candidates to vote for one as Rank #1 beneath their preferred Rank #1, in order to prevent the other opposition candidates from getting in on the grounds that they might be undesirable in all kinds of ways.
My own view
AV is not proportional representation and it will not encourage a larger turnout than first-past-the-post. If anything, its complexity may dissuade voters from voting. It also could be argued that voters should be given a fresh ballot paper at every stage so that they could make a new and informed decision based upon the latest group of candidates as a whole (each time one will be eliminated and so a different voting problem is effectively generated for the voter ). It is not proposed to do this and it is unlikely that it ever will be, on the grounds of cost alone.
The effect of AV will be maximal where the vote is split evenly across candidates. The redistribution of losers’ Rank #2 votes cannot disguise the fact that the election must be a close-run thing in order for this to happen. It is possible that the AV system will encourage a lot of propaganda, wheeling and dealing between parties prior to election day, above and beyond what already exists in the first-past-the-post system.
Trying not to look too much like an expeditionary force from The Last of the Summer Wine I set out on a country walk with my two friends, Tom and Terry, around Causey Arch in County Durham, England. This beautiful spring morning felt more like summer and the countryside looked delightful
The start of our country walk
We chatted happily as we followed the footpath but from time to time we stopped to observe more closely anything that took our interest. The first item was an excellent cluster of dung flies buzzing merrily over an enormous dark steaming cow cake.
Dungflies buzzing
While I lingered to photograph the cow pat, Tom and terry stepped on into the woods…
Tom and Terry stepping out
We followed a stream for quite some distance through the trees, pausing at one point for some coffee in a visitor centre close to the Beamish Museum.
The stream winds through the wood
Frequently, what was a cart track shrank to the narrowest of footpaths through the leafy green undergrowth.
The leafy green undergrowth
From time to time we could stop to admire bits of rusty farm machinery. To me they were tantamount to agri-sculptures; I loved them.
Agri-sculpture
The guidebook said that the walk was 4.5 miles but we felt it was a bit more than that. Still, it was an excellent trip and we shall no doubt do more of this later in the summer. Speak to you later, my dear blogophiles.
Once again I set about making Sunday lunch. The first thing I get some small savoy cabbages from my vegetable patch, pair them down and shred the leaves. I put them into a bowl and set them aside until I need them. Next I put some spuds on to boil; when they are done I will drain them and much later slice them for sautée.
I then make my shortcrust pastry and leave it to rest in the fridge. I get the fry pan on the stove and chop an onion with garlic; at this point a warden wearing a gasmask would probably register that some serious cooking was going on. I put some chicken breast pieces into a plastic bag, toss in a couple of spoonfuls of flour, and shake it about as if I was on a 1960s dance floor. I fry the chicken with some quartered mushrooms, and toss in a hand of ready-shelled walnut halves. Meanwhile, using my Xmas present kitchen toy, I chop a handful of parsley. I turn on the oven and put a milk pan on the stove to melt some butter, slopping in some plain flour to make a roux. I let the flour cook through and start adding the milk. When the white sauce has reduced I toss in the hachoired parsley and put all the stuff into the pie dish, finishing with the white parsley sauce. I roll out my pastry, make the pastry lid and decorate it with a few leaves. I then brush egg onto the pastry for a nice glaze and bang the pie into the oven to cook. I slice the spuds and use two fry pans to sautée them, meanwhile bringing salted water to the boil for my cabbage. I cook the cabbage only for about 5 minutes and while it is in the pan I cut up some sun-dried tomatoes. When the cabbage is done I drain it and then mix in the tomatoes. I take the potatoes out of the frying pans, and get the pie from the oven. It is looking good.
My chicken, mushroom and walnut pie
Finally, I plate up. The pastry is delightful and I like the crunchy hard texture of the warmed walnuts in contrast to the chicken and mushrooms. The cabbage tasted nice, too. I may grow some more this year. The only negative thing about cooking a Sunday lunch like this is that I have had no time to play piano or practice guitar. Still, I can go do that now. So bye for now, my dear blogophiles; I’ll speak to you later.
A Sunday lunch in greens, yellows and browns
Hello, my dear blogophiles. I suddenly realised that it is 20 days since I last blogged. I shall endeavour to mend my tardy ways. At present, I seem to be sweeping up fallen leaves from the garden, a job I should have done months ago. Not to worry, once swept they are gone, and the virgin soil is suitably exposed for spring flowers.
This weekend I plan to make a chicken and mushroom pie. I took some small cabbages from my vegetable patch yesterday and I shall cook them with guidance from the very wonderful Delia Smith, as an accompaniment. My guess is I shall also sautee some spuds since there should be enough space on the hob. The pie will have a creamy white sauce within it, so my inclination is not to make a separate sauce, since that might draw the spotlight away from what is in the pie. I am tempted to use the phrase ‘over-egging the pudding‘ but applying it to a main course might not work. There is not enough semantic space between the two notions.
I must go practice my piano. Speak to you later 🙂
This weekend I decided to make a cheese soufflé. For the cheese I grated some Norwegian Jarlsberg and that tasted fine.Maybe it could have risen more spectacularly but I was pleased with the way it turned out.
My cheese soufflé
I have been incredibly busy with my music lately and so I have not had much time to blog. I’m also pressing on with the first draft of my autobiography. I have got to the point where I moved to Sheffield to take up my research scholarship with the Medical Research Council, although I was based in their unit of social and applied psychology. Oh, and my marriage fell apart. Happy days. I wanted to make a start on the illustrations for the bio, too, but that has been frustratingly slow. I have been thinking about doing a drawing of my paternal Grandad from a reference photo. My inclination is to do the drawing digitally, although I can see that pencil could be nice. The problem is that I can’t make up my mind. Btw, on Friday I had a very good full English breakfast with my friend Tom. I have to go out now. Speak to you later.
It was my turn to cook Sunday lunch today. I made a hearty vegetable stew with parsley dumplings. I chopped the parsley with the mezzaluna that I was given as a present at Christmas time.
Chopping parsley with the mezzaluna
The meal was very straightforward to make. I cooked the dumplings in a separate pan, in boiling water that had a vegetable stock cube crumbled into it. I had put some pearl barley in with the vegetables but I needed to thicken the stew towards the end. I know some folk don’t like using corn flour, but I think it works just fine.
Vegetable stew and parsley dumplings
Last night I enjoyed playing my gig at Helles Angels in SL. Not a lot has been happening lately in first life. I am ploughing on with my autobiography and have been working on the period when I went to Leicester university in my mid-20s.
Speak to you later.
Today I made a batch of garlic bagels. The poaching of the dough rings, followed by the baking in the oven, is perhaps a bit of a palaver but the end result is delightful. I ate mine with smoked salmon and cottage cheese, although I believe New Yorkers take cream cheese.
Home-made garlic bagels
While things seem to be going ok in the kitchen that is far from the case with regard to my piano playing, about which I have not one single good word to say at present. Speak to you later, my dear blogophiles.
It is 4.45 pm and I am waiting for the sun to drop below the yard arm. Except I am not on a boat, it is winter, and more or less dark anyway. I am to be taken out for a meal as a birthday treat; an annual event that becomes incrementally filled with foreboding, as the years tick on by. I always have a couple of G&Ts before I go out for my birthday meal. Always. Habit, tradition, call it what you will, it is an essential ritual. Today, regretfully, there is not a single lemon in the house. Lemons can sit in my kitchen for weeks on end, being of bugger-all use to anyone, but the very day I want one there is none.
My daughter, who last autumn went to live in another country, sorted out shipping for a stack of belongings she put into boxes when she visited at Christmas. Today, the shippers delivered their cartons to my house and I have packed them. Somehow, the passage of stuff out of the house makes it feel permanent, makes it definite. To be honest, it makes me feel old. Its impact is heavier and deeper than the mere occurrence of another birthday. It provides a physical marker of a new personal era, a next step along the path of life. It gives rise to a pause for thought, a moment to consider intimations of mortality more broadly.
I feel this all the more keenly because for the past six months I have been writing my autobiography. At first it was a half-hearted attempt which I thought I would tire of quickly. I didn’t really believe I would seriously address the task, but I have done so. I am now so far sucked into it I have to keep going until I finish. In my manuscript I am at the point where I have left school and have been working in various jobs for several years. I am in my early 20s and about to get married. I don’t want to speak about personal details relating to my first wife and our marriage, but I have to find ways to talk about that period of my life and clearly she did feature in it. It presents a very interesting challenge in terms of writing the book. Writing an autobiography is very similar to writing fiction; the only difference is that the plot has its feet in history and real life, whatever that might be. However, the final manuscript will be merely one way of telling the story of my life; there could be many variations in the tale. Just as in classical music, the main events provide the notes and pattern of the theme, but I could embellish that theme in many ways, messing with cadences, emphases, tempo and crescendo. In music, silence can be extremely telling and important. In my autobiography, I choose those things about which I shall remain silent. In part, my decisions about what not to say will affect the temperature of the prose. I could decide to blurt out a lot of stuff and produce a vitriolic tome, or I could ease back and offer an altogether gentler tale. My inclination is to do the latter. By definition, it is the case that I shall be the hero (obviously I shall in my autobiography). I have to decide how I wish to portray my hero. Do I allow myself to boast a little? Should I avoid being too self-deprecating? These are fascinating questions.
I would like to say a few words to my Second Life blogophiles who come to my shows… let me reassure you that I am hoping to extend my repertoire over this coming year in 2011. It was one of my new year’s resolutions. I am hoping for a minor breakthrough with my piano playing. I do work hard at it. Paradoxically, I feel it is my guitar playing that is improving, yet I do much less work on that! I have been satisfied the way the gigs have been going though. I know my music is not to everybody’s taste and some feel that it is a bit of an acquired taste. Still, I feel I have made progress over this past year. I have now played around 650 gigs in Second Life over the past three years, so I definitely have a reasonable amount of experience. I’m looking forward to the coming year. I have a feeling it could be good, musically speaking. Ok. Talk to you later, and bye for now 🙂
John's Quavering Pencil 